Socio-Economic Determinants of Terrorism in Tunisia

Introduction

Tunisia has experienced several situations of economic instability following the increase in the number of terrorist attacks, and in turn undergoes a decrease in the growth rate and an increase in the level of unemployment. People find obstacles in settling into a position due to the high level of unemployment. Even when jobs are created, individuals are subject to low wages.

Some argue that the quality of the position fuels terrorism by creating frustration among individuals. Aggressive behavior can often occur when an individual is prevented from achieving his or her goals. It is also plausible that some unemployed people are motivated to join a terrorist organization because they do not have the financial stability to support themselves and their families.

However, terrorists see themselves as fighters for reasons of political conflict. And those who fight against this phenomenon consider themselves terrorists (Europol, 2008, Sick 1990, Silke 2008, William 2000). Hence, this phenomenon can be seen as the use of violence by national groups in order to achieve a political objective (Enders & Sandler 2002).

After the revolution, Tunisia recorded several attacks. Thus, we are interested in the determinants of terrorism. This study attempts to analyze the socio-economic determinants of terrorism, especially as regards the labor market and growth in Tunisia, taking into account other indicators that affect employment indirectly through terrorist attacks. The purpose of this paper is to show the long- and short-term relationship between terrorism and socio-economic variables in Tunisia.

This issue invites us to highlight several questions:

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  How can we define terrorism and what are its main characteristics?

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  What are the main determinants of terrorism?

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  How can political stability affect terrorism in Tunisia?

To address this issue, this study first examines the evolution of terrorism in its global dimension. The second part gives an overview of the macroeconomic framework of terrorism in Tunisia and a review of the literature that recalls the main determinants of terrorism as they emerge from economic theory and some studies conducted in this framework. Finally, the third part is devoted to the econometric estimation of the determinants of terrorism in Tunisia in order to identify the main factors that determine its evolution.

The examinations of these issues are quite imperative, as they will help determine the direct and indirect impact of policies on the stability of the country, therefore, to put in place measures to enhance economic growth. This will help Tunisia know if they are capable of solving recurrent problems and fostering growth, or if it is better to focus on international aid.

Recently, after the Arab Spring, an unprecedented wave of political violence and terrorist events occurred in several countries in the MENA region such as Tunisia. Tunisia is strongly affected by such dynamics; hence, the terrorist’s actions intimidate law and public order and human rights by destroying essential infrastructure and economic prospects (Lanouar & Goaied, 2019).

This paper attempts to analyze the determinants of terrorism in Tunisia. The aim of our study is to analyze the short- and long-term effects of various social and economic variables on terrorism. More specifically, we seek to fill the gap in the literature concerning the relationship between the Terrorism Index, which measures the number of annual attacks and social and economic variables in Tunisia. To our knowledge, our study is the first to integrate all these economic and social variables to identify the determinants of terrorism in developing countries.