Prognostication of Sales by Auto Encoder and Long-Term Short Memory

Prognostication of Sales by Auto Encoder and Long-Term Short Memory

Kapil Kumar, Kripa Shanker Mishra
Copyright: © 2022 |Pages: 15
DOI: 10.4018/IJKBO.307147
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Abstract

The intention of the paper is to improve a neural network methodology to accomplish enhanced predictions of the sales market. The data downloaded by Kaggle, data is surveyed for more than six months and the data was collected through prevalent markets for online and offline analysis with results of data visualization and prediction to illustrate sales forecasting. The traditional model like arima, RNN, and long short-term memory are not effective to provide sales forecasting with consideration of numerous constraints of the market and predict the sales incorrectly, because the RNN model suffers from vanishing gradient problems and LSTM are prone to overfitting. Therefore, these models are intensely prone to erroneous forecasts. The author suggests the “Long Term Short Memory (LSTM)” with three layers which are dropout layers, early stop layers, and simplifying layers to reduce overfitting. The result shows that the adapted “LSTM '' with the inclusion of three layers is an improved version as compared with traditional ''LSTM ``. The accuracy of the proposed model is 82%
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1. Introduction

Prediction plays a significant role in increasing of sales and has attracted industries from last years. Particularly in selling supply chains (SC), choosy client demands, high competition and diverse significant supply network structures involve patterns and data-driven decisions. Essentially, prediction is become a significant in retails supply chain management (SCM) for sales forecasting. The accurate sales forecasting allow well-versed decision making in inventory management, purchasing, collection planning and finally confirm item presence at the point of sale.

For reducing fulfilment times, firms must use new technologies, data warehousing, and advance data analytics in the industry. To make good decisions, a large amount of data is produced by these technologies that must be utilized in proper way. Particularly in the context of sales forecasting in industry, this signifies a vital prospect.

The companies of the market economy, stands a unique protagonist in China. In recent years, with the expansion of the nationwide budget and upgrading of fiscal provision, the fiscal bazaar has involved the consideration of local and overseas intellectuals and sales holders. The authors (Kimoto et al., 1990) often suggest numerous models which can be used to forecast the trends of bazaar. Although, the bazaar is inclined by the countrywide strategies, worldwide and provincial finance, and mental, social and additional elements. The economic bazaar prediction is not capable to attain the expected results on a regular basis.

For prediction, various existing methodologies are consuming. For motivation, authors discussed existing machine learning based approach as in 1998, Mizuno et al. utilized neural network in variety of cases as patterns evaluation for financial data and signal processing. Moreover, it has been extremely observed in the context of regression and classification in the series forecasting for the sales. The existing algorithms related to neural network are not capable to forecast the sales. Consequently, the random selection of features are not appropriate to drop the features for obtaining the optimized and accurate forecasting.

The source (Pang et al., 2020) found that current researches are built on economy inclusion of index as NASDAQ and Standard and Poor(S&P). The study of deep learning, in this research described the concepts of sales forecasting by discussing the natural language programming and accomplishes the imitated trail on the Shanghai A-shares market via the enhanced LSTM concept. The neural network can produce useful estimation for the fiscal bazaar in China. The information can be booked openly from the internet to deliver online and off-line information management and investigation.

The outcomes of prediction and analytics are capable to show multimedia of things via the internet for analysis of sales. The purpose is to reveal the effort that is supplied to Internet of Multimedia of Things. It can enumerate and understand the bazaar’s implications and ultimately deliver valuable analysis for sales holders. Consequently, the survey has combined the study effect from both hypothetical and real viewpoints.

1.1 Contribution

  • a).

    The authors proposed a framework based adaptive LSTM to predict the sales in market.

  • b).

    The author has modified the existing methodologies LSTM by making it more adaptive.

  • c).

    The author has reached to higher accuracy which is obtained via proposed framework for predicting sales and which is higher than others existing models.

1.2 Problem Statement

The prediction and analysis of the sales market are the most complicated tasks which need to be completed. There are numerous reasons such as market instability and a diversity of features that may be independents and dependents that have an impact on the value of particular sales in the market. The features play a significant role for a sales market expert to predict the rise and fall of the market with a high precision. There are various existing features which have been used by many authors in his/her proposed model, however, which are fighting with many limitations which need to be improved. Therefore, the authors of the paper have recommended an algorithm that is named long short term memory (LSTM) for forecasting the sales.

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