Mathematical Modelling, Analysis of Novel Corona Disease, and Its Effect on the Human Being

Introduction

Epicenter of current virus spreading throughout the world is due to unproven fact that has dominated the city of China, Wuhan. The pathogen of the virus by molecular method was named as a novel corona virus. Latter the World Health Organization (WHO) has renamed the disease as Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19). Outbreak of the current disease according to the WHO found in 202 countries, overall 1,521,252 cases are confirmed and 92,798 death so far is recorded as on 10^th April-2020 (Source: www.who.int). WHO and its partners have been working with Chinese authorities and global experts to learn more about the virus. Their main focus of study are as follows: (1) how it is transmitted, (2) the populations most at risk, (3) the spectrum of clinical disease, and (4) the most effective ways to detect, interrupt, and contain transmission.

Epidemiological evidence show that 2019‑nCoV has been spreaded among the people when they came in contact with the infected person. During previous outbreaks due to other coronaviruses, including Middle-East respiratory syndrome (MERS-CoV) and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), human-to-human transmission most commonly occurred through droplets, personal contact, and contaminated objects. The modes of transmission of 2019‑nCoV are likely to be similar.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 has made the WHO to declare the international emergency. Many research work has been underway to investigate the actual fact of the disease. Lai et al. (2020) described the challenges face by the SARS-CoV-2, he continuously studied on the possible link between the animal-human transmissions of the disease. Their study has focused on potential treatment option along with some unresolved issues. Informative information provided is that the health officers need to keep monitoring the outcome of the situation very closely so that better responses may be reported. Devaux et al. (2020) studied on the antiviral effects of chloroquine against coronavirus disease. During the outbreak of SARS-CoV-1 in the year 2003, chloroquine was previously considered as a potent inhibitor. They conclude that for COVID-19 disease the chloroquine drug hypothetically can act indirectly through reducing the production of pro-inflammotory cytokines and/or by activating anti-SARS-CoV-2 CD8⁺ T-cells. Meanwhile, researcher Robson (2020) has studied the genome of the Wuhan Seafood Market which was believed to represent the epicenter of the disease COVID-19. In his preliminary study, he described the molecular modelling and docking, and in that reference the importance of certain herbal extracts were described briefly. Zhang et al. (2017) studied three grey model namely traditional grey model, grey-periodic extensional combinatorial model and the grey model based on Fourier series. The accuracy of the model was investigated and found model predicted is capable of identifying the future tendency trend of rising cases of the disease and the attainment of the peak for decision making. Anastassopoulou et al. (2020) proposed a mathematical infectious-recovered-dead model to provide estimations of the basic reproduction number and the per day infection mortality and recover rate. The predicted model was found to be effective to forecast the evaluation of the COVID disease. Huang et al. (2020) statistically collected the records such as clinical charts, nursing record, laboratory findings and chest x-rays of the patients affected by COVID, and they categorically expressed the numbers in percentage, finally compared those results with the Mann-Whiney U test method and boxplots were drawn. Fredj and Cherif (2020) proposed a deterministic compartmental model based on the clinical progression of the disease, the epidemiological state of the individuals and the intervention for the dynamics of COVID-19 disease. From this they concluded that disease will decrease if the number of reproduction R₀ was less than one. Whereas, Khan and Atangana (2020) developed mathematical modelling and dynamics of COVID-19. They then solved the model numerically by presenting many graphical results, model found to be effective for minimization of the infection. Overall most of the researcher in their study has focused on the controlling infection to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2, which is also the main interest worldwide. In addition mathematical representation published is not clear and required more investigation about its infectious characteristic precisely. Many researchers tried to incorporate many theorems however model lack in validation. It is hard to implement an accurate number of patient infected and recovered from the spreading of COVID-19.